Happy Friday, everyone!

The Labor Department reported earlier this morning that 85,000 more jobs were lost in December than were created. Revisions to prior month’s figures showed the economy actually added 4,000 jobs in November rather than losing 11,000 as was initially reported. The government’s “do-over” for October resulted in reported job losses of 127,000.

The majority of economists had projected a headline payroll loss in December of 8,000. These same economists are now blaming their wide miss on December job market conditions on the weather — pointing out two major storms blanked the Northeast and Midwest during the data survey period.

In my judgment, the fact the national jobless rate reminded at 10.0% in December is the most significant and telling element of the entire report. The detail in this morning’s report showed there were 929,000 “discouraged workers” who had given up looking for a job, up from 642,000 a year earlier. The bid “so what” factor behind all this mumbo-jumbo is significant. If these people were still actively looking for work and had been counted as unemployed in the latest survey period — the national jobless rate would have been 10.4% or higher. Since the current story from the labor sector strongly suggests employment growth will remain puny for sometime yet to come – today’s job report is supportive of steady to potentially lower mortgage interest rates.

Looking ahead to next week — Uncle Sam will take center stage from Monday to Thursday. He’ll be in the credit markets looking to borrow roughly $100 billion in the form of inflation index 10-year notes on Monday, 3-year notes on Tuesday, 10-year notes on Wednesday and 30-year bonds on Thursday. Wednesday’s 10-year notes and Thursday’s 30-year bonds will likely exert the most potential upward pressure on mortgage rates.  —Larry B

Todays Rates:

30yr Fixed- 4.75% 0+1

15yr Fixed- 4.25% 0+1

FHA/VA 30yr- 5.00%

USDA 100% financing- 5.00%

Any and all questions can easily be answered over the phone or via email any time.

Sincerely,

D. Stephen Steakley, Jr.
Austin, Texas Home Loan Expert
512-577-8898 ph

UA website - Austin Texas Home Loans
Quick Application

Friends,

I am going technical rather than upbeat today because we saw rates increase .125% since trading opened.

Following a stronger-than-expected weekly jobless claims number —mortgage investors were quick to push mortgage interest rates fractionally higher in the day’s early going.

“According to the Labor Department, new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell by 5,000 last week to the lowest level in more than 14 months. While this jobless claims report falls outside of the survey period for tomorrow’s 8:30am ET release of the far more important November nonfarm payroll figures — some investors wasted no time placing their “bets” for a surprisingly mortgage market unfriendly employment story.

I personally think these mortgage investors may have jumped the gun a bit. Even though the first-time claims number was better than the majority of economist had anticipated — the number of people continuing to collect benefits after the initial week rose by 28,000. Going one step further, with hiring so slow, the unemployed are exhausting their regular benefits (26 weeks in most states) and instead are claiming extended benefits or Emergency Unemployment Compensation. Growing totals for these programs have more than offset the decline in the regular weekly jobless claims number. For the week ending November 14th, the enrollment in the extended benefits programs offered by the government grew by 323,000. From this perspective, the weekly jobless claims numbers are almost certainly glossing over the underlying anemic conditions in the labor market.

The probabilities remain high that Friday’s November nonfarm payroll will fall within shouting distance of the consensus estimate for a national job loss number of 130,000. If so, the Labor Department’s data will likely exert little, if any influence on the mortgage market. On the other hand, if the headline number shows the economy lost 150,000 jobs or more and/or the national jobless rate exceeds 10.3% — the odds are high that a large number of investors will be caught leaning the wrong way — resulting in higher prices and lower mortgage interest rates before the day is over.” —Larry Baer

My advice is to jump now and lock your rate. Waiting at this potentional transition point could back fire.

Today’s Rates:
30yr fixed- 4.75% 0+1
15yr fixed- 4.25% 0+1
FHA/VA 5.00% 0+0
USDA 100% financing 5.00%

Have a great day and I look forward to receiving your loan application!

Cheers,

D. Stephen Steakley, Jr.
Austin, Texas Home Loan Expert
512-577-8898 ph
Austin, TX Home Loan – Quick Application

Happy Friday!

The market has turned nicely for us today and rates have eased down .125%

30yr fixed – 4.625% 0+1
15yr fixed – 4.125% 0+1
5yr ARM – 3.75%

Larry Bear Market Specialist:
“Trading volume in the mortgage market so far today has been light and sporadic — with the few transactions that are being completed drawing higher prices for the underlying security.

There is really not much to talk about in terms of economic news — even though some media sources are trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill with their breathless announcement that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell four (4) percentage points in October. Hmmm, let’s see, I wonder if the fact the national jobless rate jumped to a 26-year high during the month might have bummed consumers out just a bit. I have yet to see one mainstream media report that drills down into the data deep enough to discover that while the index fell back to about the level seen in July and August — it remains comfortably above its cyclical lows.

Take today’s consumer sentiment report with a grain-of-salt. Mortgage investors are generally far more interested in what the consumer is actually doing — as opposed to how they say they are feeling during a telephone interview. Consumers’ true underlying sentiment will be abundantly clear when the Commerce Department releases the October Retail Sales figures Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Interestingly enough, the headline number is expected to have posted a 0.9% gain — a handsome recovery from September’s 1.5% slump. The ex. auto component of the report is expected to have matched September’s 0.5% improvement. Not bad for the supposedly crestfallen consumer most media sources would have you believe currently dominates the retail marketplace.”

Things are good right now. Enjoy your weekend!

D. Stephen Steakley, Jr.
Austin, Texas Home Loan Expert
512-577-8898 ph
Austin, TX Home Loan – Quick Application