Trading activity has almost ground to a standstill in the mortgage market as investors choose to take a cautious “wait-and-see” approach in front of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2009.  The text and tone of the Committee’s post-meeting statement (scheduled for release at 2:15 p.m. ET, Wednesday, December 16^th) will contribute significantly to the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates up and through the Christmas break.  

Any hint that the central bank is considering backing off of its asset purchase programs, or perhaps mulling an increase in its benchmark short-term interest rates will likely send mortgage interest rates notably higher.  While it is worth noting this risk exists – the probability of such an outcome is exceptionally low. 

The underlying pace of inflation remains by all measures comfortably within the Fed’s stated “comfort zone.” From a historical perspective there has never been a time that the Fed has begun to tighten short-term interest rates when unemployment rates were rising and inflation pressures remained benign.  As things now stand, the central bank will probably guardedly acknowledge the recent improvement in the nation’s economic backdrop — but will clearly renew its commitment to keep its benchmark short-term interest rates near zero for an “extended period.”   If this assessment proves accurate, look for this event to have little, if any significant influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates

Hope you all had a good weekend!

Trading activity has almost ground to a standstill in the mortgage market as investors choose to take a cautious “wait-and-see” approach in front of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2009. The text and tone of the Committee’s post-meeting statement (scheduled for release at 2:15 p.m. ET, Wednesday, December 16th) will contribute significantly to the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates up and through the Christmas break.

Any hint that the central bank is considering backing off of its asset purchase programs, or perhaps mulling an increase in its benchmark short-term interest rates will likely send mortgage interest rates notably higher. While it is worth noting this risk exists — the probability of such an outcome is exceptionally low. —Larry Baer

Today’s Urban Austin Mortgage Rates:
30yr fixed- 4.625% 0+1.25
15yr fixed- 4.125% 0+1.25
FHA/VA- 4.75% 0+1.25
USDA 100% financing- 4.75% 0+1.25

*These low rates are ONLY offered through Urban Austin Mortgage. The application process is FREE, simple and you can receive an approval in just a few hours. Let’s get to work!

Respectfully,

D. Stephen Steakley, Jr.
Austin, Texas Home Loan Expert
512-577-8898 ph
Austin, TX Home Loan – Quick Application

The inflation data will be the most important releases this week. Inflation erodes the value of fixed income securities causing prices to fall and rates to rise. The Fed meeting will also take center stage. While no rates changes are expected the wording of the release will be very important.

Here are the reports, and when they are released. 

Happy Friday, everyone!

Selling pressure in the mortgage market surged this morning driven by a report from the Commerce Department indicating November Retail Sales increased 1.3%, its largest advance since August, after rising 1.1% in October. It was the second straight monthly gain for overall retail sales and handily beat market expectations for a 0.7% gain. Compared to last year, overall retail sales were up 1.9%, the first year-on-year gain since August 2008. Excluding autos, retails sales increased 1.2% last month, the largest increase since January.

As the day progresses I look for calmer, cooler heads to conclude that a significant amount of the surge in the pace of November sales was created through heavy discounting by retailers attempting to get a head-start on the holiday season. There is still a big question mark attached to the retail sales data regarding the sustainability of November’s solid performance. Fundamentally, conditions remain poor for consumers. Wage income is more than 3.0% below its year-ago level and there is little chance of improvement in that figure until the labor sector once again begins to produce more jobs than it looses on a month-over-month basis. In a nutshell — in my judgment it is unlikely this report is as threatening to the prospects of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates as many “talking-heads” are currently trying to make it out to be. —Larry Baer

Today’s Urban Austin Mortgage Rates:
30yr fixed- 4.625% 0+1.5
15yr fixed- 4.125% 0+1.5
FHA/VA- 4.75% 0+1.5
USDA 100% financing- 4.75% 0+1.5

*These low rates are ONLY offered through Urban Austin Mortgage. The application process is FREE, simple and you can receive an approval in just a few hours. Let’s get to work!

Respectfully,

D. Stephen Steakley, Jr.
Austin, Texas Home Loan Expert
512-577-8898 ph
Austin, TX Home Loan – Quick Application

Good day, friends!

Most mortgage investors are waiting quietly on the sidelines for the results of this afternoon’s Treasury debt auction. Uncle Sam will be active in the credit market looking to sell a stack of 10-year notes worth $21 billion. The auction will conclude at 1 p.m. ET.

Mortgage investors are keeping their fingers crossed that year-end conditions and balance sheet issues don’t cause the broker/dealer community to bid less aggressively for today’s government debt offering. While it probably won’t be anything to write home to mom about — the chances are pretty reasonable that today’s Treasury auction will be strong enough to limit most of the upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. I am guardedly optimistic in my market view for no other reason than there are few other investments in the global credit market universe that are currently seen as being as low risk as Treasuries. If this assessment proves accurate, look for today’s auction to exert little, if any noticeable upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. I’ll provide auction results as quick as possible once the final gavel falls.

It is Wednesday, which means the Mortgage Bankers of America have issued their mortgage application index for the week ended Dec. 5th. According to the MBA, overall demand for residential financing rose by 8.5%. Demand for loans to buy a home increased by 4.0% to its highest level since the last week of October — while refinance applications jumped 11.1% to a two-month high. —L. Baer

Today’s Urban Austin Mortgage Rates:
30yr fixed- 4.625% 0+1
15yr fixed- 4.125% 0+1
FHA/VA- 4.75% 0+1
USDA 100% financing- 4.75% 0+1

*These low rates are ONLY offered through Urban Austin Mortgage. The application process is FREE, simple and you can receive an approval in just a few hours. Lets get to work!

Cheers,

D. Stephen Steakley, Jr.
Austin, Texas Home Loan Expert
512-577-8898 ph
Austin, TX Home Loan – Quick Application