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You already know that what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates has a huge impact on the housing market.   I’m Russ Boyd and what you might not know is that the Fed influences housing prices in another significant way—through its purchasing of mortgage-backed securities (MBS)—and now the question is that when the Fed stops buying those securities in the near future, how will it affect the housing market?
Some background will help explain what is going on. Let’s start with a definition. An MBS is a group of mortgage loans that are pooled together and sold as a bond.

Part of a Pool

It is easy to understand how MBS come about and how they work. When you go to a bank or mortgage broker to borrow money to purchase a home, the home is collateral, and your mortgage—the promise you’ll pay principal and interest each month—is the anticipated cash flow the lender receives from you.
That bank or broker then sells your loan to an entity that aggregates your loan with a bunch of other loans into a big “pool” of various types of loans with various maturity dates (fixed, adjustable rate, one-year, 30-year, good credit, bad credit, etc.) The aggregator then issues these pooled mortgages as bonds, the MBS, which promise investors an attractive stream of interest payments.
Who are these aggregators?
They are government sponsored entities (GSEs). One large group is the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB), a private corporation made up of 8,100 member banks. All of the member banks must own stock in FHLB in order to participate in its loan program.  Other GSEs, which have become household names are Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae
To recap,  an MBS is a pool of home loans sold as a bond. And we know who issues them: government sponsored enterprises such as Freddie and Fannie, etc. So, how does this help us understand where real estate prices are going?

Easier to Get a Home Loan

Well, most banks have neither enough money, nor any desire, to hold a large number of home loans for an extended period of time. Absent a place for the banks to sell them, as many of us found out over the last year, it then becomes difficult for us to get a new loan. Thus, the MBS market is currently providing us all with an important means of loan supply, albeit indirectly via our bankers and mortgage brokers. The easier it is for banks to sell our loans to MBS aggregators, the easier it is for us to get a home loan. The more difficult it is, the harder (and more costly) it is for us to get a mortgage.
When the entire financial system found itself on shaky ground the housing market was affected big time. Anticipating a big increase in homeowners defaulting on their mortgages, investors no longer wanted to own their existing MBS, let alone buy newly issued MBS.
With no buyers for those securities, the GSEs couldn’t sell them or issue more. As a result, the supply of mortgage loans all but came to a screaming halt.
To the rescue came the Fed. Last November, as part of its efforts to get the economy moving again, the Fed announced it would buy $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities. In March of this year it raised its target to $1.25 trillion, and it has followed through on its pledge.  These purchases have undoubtedly provided much needed liquidity to the MBS market and helped keep the long-term mortgage rates at historic lows.

Behind the Higher Rates

O.K., let’s get back to the original question: What’s next? Well, just as it has been with interest rates, the Fed has been transparent about its intentions toward MBS. It has said it will stop buying MBS once it fulfills its commitment of buying those $1.25 trillion worth of bonds. It will complete that purchase sometime during the first quarter of next year.
That means that, sometime within the next five months, the Fed will be withdrawing a prop under the housing market.
What remains to be seen is how other investors react as the Fed slows—and then eliminates—its purchase program.
My expectation: As the Fed pulls out, private investors will demand a higher interest rate for such securities—to compensate for their concern people will continue to default on their mortgages—and thus long-term mortgage rates will rise. The real question is how fast and how high.
The real estate and mortgage markets are more complex than ever.  I encourage all interested buyers, sellers and homeowners to work with an agent that they can trust, an agent that values their business and an agent that has the skills and experience to provide counsel and guidance in this complex market.



If you are in the San Francisco Bay Area, I invite you to start at our Resource Center, www.AboutBayAreaHomes.com. There you will find links for active home listings, including bank owned and short sales, home loans, market activity reports, home seller strategies, staging and decorating,  a suite of 19 calculators, plus my book, “Let’s Make a Deal, The insiders Guide to Buying and Selling Real Estate” and more.  Of course I am always available to discuss your real estate or mortgage related questions or concerns, just call, text or email me for a prompt response.

Russ Boyd and his team professionally assist buyers, sellers and homeowners in the Peninsula Communities of the San Francisco Bay Area. They serve clients in San Mateo, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Alameda and Contra Costa counties. Licensed as a Real

Fannie does not disclose buyback information. However, Freddie Mac forced its seller/servicers to buy back $960 million in bad mortgages in third quarter. Ginnie Mae and Federal Housing Administration also require buybacks and indemnifications on bad loans.

In total Banks had to buy back $7.1 billion in defaulted single-family loans in the third quarter to reimburse mortgage investors, up from $1.9 billion in the previous quarter.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Call Report information shows that most of the buyback demands fell on JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. Chase repurchased $2.7 billion in defaulted loans and Bank of America repurchased $2.3 billion to satisfy investor demands. Both are on the hook for troubled loans they took control of when they purchased ailing mega-thrifts — Countrywide in the case of Bank of America and Washington Mutual by Chase.

The FDIC information also lists buybacks by Citibank $898 million, National City Bank $361.6 million, Wells Fargo Bank $266 million and SunTrust Bank $232.3 million.

Investors like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can require lenders to buy back defaulted loans that don’t comply with their underwriting requirements.

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I hate to tell everyone I told them so, but I posted a blog similar to this GREAT article a while back. I cannot stress to you enough how important it is to work with an FHA Lender in Texas that UNDERSTANDS and foresees these types of things! Read on.

Addressing Continued Concerns About the FHA

In January of this year, both Joe Murin and I were asked by HUD Secretary Donovan to remain as Ginnie Mae president and FHA Commissioner respectively to help the new Administration deal with the on-going housing crisis.  We both were privileged to be asked and were honored to continue serving in the Obama Administration for several more months.

However, today, as a former government official, if I could leave you with one message it would be this:

There has never been a point in our nation’s history that better illustrates exactly why FHA and Ginnie Mae exist. During these uncertain economic times, their counter-cyclical role of ensuring adequate mortgage activity and liquidity has been necessary and vital.

FHA has saved close to one million sub-prime/Alt-A borrowers from possible financial ruin by allowing them to refinance into a safe and secure 30-year fixed rate mortgage.  Another 2 million qualified borrowers (80% of them first-time homebuyers) have taken advantage of the declining house prices and historically low interest rates to purchase a home using FHA.  FHA’s role has grown substantially from three percent of lending activity by dollar volume in 2006 to nearly 25 percent of all mortgages originated today. That massive uptick in volume occurred almost overnight beginning in spring 2008.

Through it all…. FHA has helped pump more than $400 billion of mortgage activity and liquidity into the market since 2008, while still managing to deliver a higher credit quality borrower whose average FICO score is 700.

One can only imagine how much worse our economy would be right now without the FHA. However, the growth of FHA in the past 18 months has understandably attracted a lot of attention. While the FHA did not take part in the housing boom, it is feeling its effects.

As many anticipated, given the current sluggish economy, the FHA is experiencing an increased rate of delinquencies and more foreclosures.

Simultaneously, as home values fall or just fail to appreciate, the number of homes the FHA insures is rising significantly. In October, this forced HUD to announce that in 2010 the FHA’s reserves could dip below the mandatory 2% level required by Congress.

Reminder: FHA collects premiums from borrowers (revenue) and also pays out claims to lenders when loans go into default and foreclosure (outlays).

For FHA, the primary reason for continued defaults and foreclosures will be macro-economic problems that go beyond the scope of underwriting. For instance, continued job losses and the further decline of home values and equity.

Absent a massive economic downturn, I don’t believe FHA will face the same type of catastrophic losses we saw in the subprime sector. The reasons for FHA’s problems are very different from the ones experienced in the subprime sector where unsafe loan features and poor underwriting made investing in non-agency mortgages risky from the start.

The FHA has undeniably tightened guidelines in an effort to help ensure a higher loan quality.  Prospective borrowers must verify income and job history as part of a rigorous underwriting process.

I offer this assurance in an effort to raise your comfort level as to the future of FHA.  FHA must keep its eyes on the ball to make certain that American homeowners and renters are served while American taxpayers are protected.

As a reminder, I offer the following insight about the strategies the FHA is considering to ensure the market remains confident in the FHA’s risk management models:

• Tighten underwriting criteria
• Increase premiums
• Raise the down payment requirements above 3.5%
• Overlay a credit score cut-off

Looking forward it’s important for all of us to continue advocating for reforms that better ensure a vibrant, transparent, and sound mortgage marketplace. Current market conditions highlight the critical role of the private and public sectors in keeping mortgage credit flowing.

All of us are trying to make sure we are well positioned to continue serving customers as this industry moves through truly tectonic change. I welcome the opportunity to hear about the challenges you face and discuss how all of us are addressing this brave new world of mortgage finance.