Mortgage Rates this Week and What to Expect

The Mortgage Market Advisory™ The Week of March 1, 2010 Provided by Amy Arey / National Home-Loan Advocates

Mortgage pricing had a very positive week last week as a number of economic readings came in mixed to weaker than expected. · Consumer Confidence was weaker than expected · New Home Sales was weaker than expected · Weekly Jobless Claims higher than expected Additionally we received more data that shows little to no inflation in the economy and further reiteration from Fed President Bernanke that the Fed is committed to keeping “rates low for an extended period of time.” Bond auctions were strong last week as well and continue to show traders/investors who are still hedging their bets with the safety of bonds as the EU debt crises continues to loom.

The Week Ahead: This will be a good week to stay close to your mortgage professional as Wednesday through Friday could be volatile. With a variety of impactful data points slated, traders will be watching the slew of employment data that we get starting Wednesday and ending on Friday with the Employment report for February. Since a consumer recovery is central to sustainable growth, all eyes will be watching the employment data as their indicator. Anything that would suggest a weaker view of the employment picture would be bullish for mortgage pricing at current levels, but a stronger view of the employment condition could move mortgage rates up quickly from here. Wednesday: We will get our first employment data point for the week with ADP’s employment report. This is often used as a gauge for what we might expect on Friday’s February overall employment report, while ADP only attempts to measure the private employment sector. We will also get a very important data on the condition of the service sector with the ISM report, while later in the afternoon we will get more to digest from the Fed as they release their Beige Book. Thursday: We get another dose of employment data with the Weekly Jobless Claims report that was weaker than expected last week. The other important report of the day will be the Pending Home Sales report which is expected to edge up slightly. Friday: The biggest data point of the week will be the report that can be considered the single most important report each month as we get the February Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. The estimates are looking for an unemployment rate of 9.8% accompanied with about 20k in job losses for February. Anything that would suggest a weaker view of the employment picture would be bullish for mortgage pricing at current levels, but a stronger view of the employment condition could move mortgage rates up quickly from here. Economic Calendar: Wednesday, Mar. 3 8:15 ADP Private Employment (-10k) *HIGH* 10:00 ISM Service Sector (51.0) *HIGH* 2:00 Fed Beige Book *HIGH* Thursday, Mar. 4 8:30 Weekly Jobless Claims (-20k to 475k) *HIGH* 10:00 Factory Orders (+1.2%) Moderate 10:00 Pending Home Sales (+1.7%) *HIGH* Friday, Mar. 5 8:30 February Employment Report (-20k/ 9.8%) *HIGH* Mortgage Market Advisory Disclaimer This is only our opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all parties.

This service is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. None of the information provided constitutes a solicitation, offer, or recommendation by NHLA to buy or sell any security, or to provide legal, professional, tax, accounting, or investment advice. Every lender’s price desk has their own strategies and reactions to market movements. Our information is simply based on market movements and does not predict or report potential pricing adjustments by particular lenders.

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